Forex

The field of currency exchange-traded products keeps getting better and
better. Only a few years ago, the selection of such products was quite
small, and limited to the major currencies (i.e. Dollar, Euro, Yen).
Next came the introduction of riskier currencies, namely those of the
so-called emerging markets, such as the Mexican Peso, Brazilian Real,
Indian Rupee, and most recently the Chinese Yuan. This was followed by
multi-currency and strategy funds, such as the Dollar Bearish fund and
a Carry Trade fund. This brings us to the present day, where Barclays
Capital has brought to the market the Asian and Gulf Currency
Revaluation ETN. As its name suggests, this ETN aims to capture any
gains from the revaluation of five select currencies that are currently

In the near future, this day may be looked back on as important in the battle between the Dollar and Euro that is currently being waged. The previous month had been relatively kind to the Dollar, which had gradually clawed its way back from a record low against the Euro. Then came yesterday, when Jean-Claude Trichet, leader of the European Central Bank, surprised investors when he announced that not only will the ECB not be cutting rates, but in fact, it may hike them. If enough members of the Central Bank become convinced that inflation is unlikely to abate, the rate hike could come as soon as next month. Today, the knockout punch was delivered, when the US unemployment rate came in at 5.5%.

When China's foreign exchange reserves breached the $1 Trillion mark in November 2006, it was a momentous occasion. Over the following 18 months, however, analysts yawned as the reserves nearly doubled in size. In the month of April, alone, China added an astounding $75 Billion to its stockpile, bringing the total to $1.76 Billion. Analysts attribute this sudden increase to a massive inflow of hot money, as investors seek to profit from both the Yuan's inevitable appreciation and the widening interest rate spread between China and the US. The Central Bank of China also recently announced the official 2007 trade numbers, which reveal a 49% increase in the country's current account surplus, to $370 Billion.

After sinking to a record low of $1.60 against the Euro in April, the Dollar has rallied to a 3-month high. According to analysts, the interest rate story appears to have driven the sudden reversal. In short, expectations surrounding the EU-US interest rate differential are changing, such that investors now believe the ECB will begin lowering rates just as the Fed begins hiking them. This story is also consistent with the broader economic picture, whereby the Fed is shifting its attention from the economy to inflation, while the ECB is doing the opposite. Meanwhile, the Treasury yield curve has gradually expanded in order to reflect expectations for higher medium-term interest rates. It doesn't look like the Dollar will be a funding currency for carry trades for much longer.

Over the last few weeks, the focal point of discussion surrounding the current US economic crisis has shifted from economic growth to inflation, and commentators are now invoking the stagflation of the 1970's. Moreover, the Fed is experiencing mounting pressure to show that it is serious about preventing inflation from spiraling out of control. In a move clearly intended to silence critics, Ben Bernanke announced today that the Fed is finished cutting rates, which stand at a four-year low of 2%. No one had seriously expected the Fed to continue loosening its monetary policy. Thus, analysts are debating whether Bernanke was merely stating the obvious or if instead, he is laying the groundwork for rate hikes, perhaps later this year.

The upcoming 10th Anniversary of the European Central Bank is being greeted with a flurry of commentary and analysis of its brief history. The consensus is that both the bank and the Euro currency over which it presides have come a long way. The respect that investors have come to accord the Euro with can be witnessed in its rapid appreciation over the last five years. The ECB has also been singled out for praise for its commitment to fighting inflation.

Over the last two years, South Korea's overseas borrowings more than
doubled, to $388 Billion. Nervous, perhaps, that Korean businesses may
be overextending themselves, the government is seeking to regulate such activities. Based on the way the forex markets
responded to the news, it must be perceived that borrowing abroad is
helping the Korean economy. On the one hand, if loans are denominated
in foreign currency and must then be converted to local currency, this
would exert upward pressure on the Korean Won. On the other hand, this
also requires more local currency to be printed, which fuels inflation. Much
of the borrowings are being undertaken by shipbuilders who are trying
to hedge their exposure to a rising Dollar. The Edge Daily reports:

According to one index, commodity prices have risen 40% over the last twelve months. One would therefore expect the Canadian economy to be commensurately strong. According to the most current economic data, however, just the opposite is true. Wholesale manufacturing sales are down for the second straight quarter. Non-commodity exports are also trending downwards due to sustained economic weakness in the US, Canada's most important trade partner. Continued strength in the Canadian Dollar is also to blame. In addition, Canadians are traveling abroad in greater numbers, while international visitors to Canada have dwindled to record lows. As a result, Canadian GDP is expected to fall close to 0% for the second quarter, significantly below the Central Bank's goal of 1%.

sOnly last year, the idea that the Australian Dollar would ever reach parity with the USD was laughable. Then, earlier this year, it became plausible. Now, according to an informal poll of analysts, it is not only possible, but likely. AUD bulls should look no further than the rapid surge in commodity prices, which may boost the total value of Australian exports by 20%, including a 30% rise in its commodity exports. In short, the Australian economy has boomed, and inflation is slowly creeping up. The consensus among economists is that the Royal Bank of Australia will leave its benchmark lending rate unchanged at 7.25% for the duration of the year. At the very least, it won't lower rates, which is all analysts need to believe in order to get behind its currency.

Raise your hand if you've ever heard of the Hungarian Forint.  I didn't think so.