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Today marked the official launch of Tip'd, a new website which combines news, social networking, and investing. The site enables users to upload news stories which fit into several categories of finance and economics. Stories are ranked in terms of popularity (based on the number of times that users "tip" them), with the most-read stories appearing on the front page. Users can post comments, as well as forge relationships with other users, perhaps based on common interests. I am posting about Tip'd here on the Forex Blog, because of the amalgamation of forex news that can be found on the site.

That the credit crisis has been kind to the US Dollar is possibly the understatement of the century. In other words, despite the rapid drop in US equity prices and the impending economic recession, the Dollar has gained over 15% against its chief rival, the Euro. The cause of the Dollar bounce is a perception that the US is a safe place to invest during periods of economic uncertainty. This may or not be true. Regardless, some analysts insist that the Dollar remains doomed in the long-term. The US government has already spent $2 Trillion trying to restore confidence in capital markets and/or forestall recession. It seems unlikely that this entire amount can be raised from foreign investors, in which case the Federal Reserve Bank will be forced to print money to make up the difference.

It seems the Korean Won has (temporarily) bottomed out, reversing one of the largest declines in its history. The currency's 5% daily jump has made it one of one of the few bright spots in Asia this week, where stock markets and currencies collapsed due to a complete lack of confidence. Analysts attribute the jump to a rumor that Korean regulators are trying to ferret out speculators, who are believed to have driven the Won down over the last few months. As a result, a sudden surge of foreign capital poured into Korea, as investors returned with renewed vigor, confident that the Korean government is prepared to deal domestically with the crisis that is gripping global financial markets. Bloomberg News reports:

Developing countries (in Asia) responded to the 1997 financial crisis by prudently building up massive stocks of foreign exchange reserves to mitigate the risk of another crisis. In August, the reserves of eight of these countries (excluding China and Japan) promptly fell by a combined $36 Billion, setting a monthly record in the process. The flow of capital into the developing world has gradually reversed itself over the last year, as investors have fled emerging markets as part of a broad strategy to limit exposure to risk. Central Banks have responded by using their reserves as a means to restoring confidence and to propping up their respective currencies.

As Karl Marx once proclaimed, "Central Banks of the world: Unite!" Well, not exactly....

Over the last two months, the South African Rand has plummeted, losing nearly 20% of its value against the US Dollar en route to a five-year low. It seems the currency has become the latest victim of the credit crisis and the resulting widespread risk aversion. The sudden exodus away from the carry trade, for example, has affected the Rand disproportionately, as many foreign investors had come to South Africa over the last few years to take advantage of the country's 12% interest rate. Now, the country is facing a horrible crisis, and is worrying about its ability to finance its current account deficit, which already exceeds 7% of GDP. Accordingly, analysts predict the Rand will continue to drop. Bloomberg News reports:

The rapid and insidious spread of the credit crisis to Europe and even farther afield is catching Central Bankers completely off guard. In fact, they have been forced to rapidly shift gears from fighting inflation to preventing recession. Depending on how you look at it, the Fed was actually ahead of the curve in this regard, having moved to adjust its monetary policy and facilitate greater liquidity in credit markets nearly one year ago, well before other Central Banks. Since such policymaking usually takes about 18 months to trickle down to the grassroots of the economy, the US could conceivably begin the long road to economic recovery well before the rest of the world.

In times of financial crisis, investors can reasonably be expected to park their money in the least risky capital markets. In this case, that means those in the US and Japan. Compare this so-called "safe haven" trade with the "carry trade" that preponderated in previous years, as investors shifted capital away from Japan in order to earn higher yields. Now, as volatility surges to dangerous levels, investors are going to increasingly great lengths to mitigate risk. At least until the negotiations surrounding the US government bailout are resolved (whether in success or failure), big bets are off the table. In other words, few investors continue to scour the globe for yield, which eliminates the raison d'etre of the carry trade. Bloomberg News reports:

At the end of each quarter, banks usually make an effort to balance their books. As a result of the ongoing credit crisis, however, completing this task at the end of the 3rd quarter fiscal 2008 was nearly impossible for most banks. Fortunately, the Federal Reserve Bank intervened to relieve the situation. In conjunction with the world's major Central Banks, the Fed moved to make hundreds of Billions of Dollars in short-term capital available to financial institutions. The Fed will utilize swap agreements, which involve the exchange of blocks of currencies at agreed-upon exchange rates on agreed-upon dates. These particular swaps should help both to mitigate the shortage of Dollars on the open market and to further buttress the Greenback. AFP reports:

One of the advantages of trading currencies (compared to other types of securities) is that forex markets operate continuously from 6PM (US Eastern time) Sunday to 4PM Friday. However, some traders may find this overwhelming. After all, if the markets never close, how should one decide when to trade?